Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 118 | 418 | 05 | 541 |
| NYI | 19 | 110 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:47NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Ryan Strome, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:41CARJay McClementAssists: Chris Terry, Brad Malone · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 1:26CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Eric Staal, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:50CARJay McClementAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:11NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 17:46CARBrad MaloneGWGAssists: Andrej Nestrasil, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
- P2 19:52CARMichal JordanPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 9:35NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:28CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:58NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:42NYIKael Mouillierat: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:27NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:55NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:55CARAlexander Semin: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Terry – Malone8:41
xG 0.79–0.11 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Nestrasil – Rask11:22
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm9:05
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Staal10:46
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Bellemore14:13
xG 1.75–0.23 (88%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Hillen – Jordan12:57
xG 0.77–0.64 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Faulk15:23
xG 0.34–0.90 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee13:04
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Nelson7:25
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Strome7:58
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Mouillierat5:09
xG 0.06–0.48 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:54
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Hickey – Hamonic8:25
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Hickey – Leddy2:41
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).