Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 011 | 08 | 030 |
| MTL | 26 | 05 | 212 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00MTLManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:57MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 1:02MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 17:28MTLDavid DesharnaisENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.62 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:18MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:08TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:49MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:05TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:09MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:44TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:44TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Booth – Komarov7:51
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Booth – Komarov – Holland2:31
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Panik11:36
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:37
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly10:16
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Robidas – Gardiner10:06
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Robidas – Polak3:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose7:49
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:59
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Smith-Pelly – Galchenyuk2:23
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Bournival8:07
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban14:41
xG 0.96–0.40 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu5:12
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Beaulieu4:52
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).