Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 111 | 016 | 236 |
| PHI | 19 | 113 | 212 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42PHIMatt ReadAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 10:06NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 11:55NYRJohn MooreAssists: Tanner Glass, Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 14:37PHIMichael RafflAssists: Braydon Coburn, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:19PHIMichael Del ZottoSHGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:59PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:21NYRRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:19PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24NYRLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:57PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:52PHIMark Streit: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:31
xG 1.24–0.48 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller6:44
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Hagelin – Miller2:37
xG 0.40–0.01 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:20
xG 0.49–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore7:34
xG 1.33–0.26 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore7:03
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Boyle – Staal8:26
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Read – Couturier11:36
xG 1.29–0.42 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:56
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl10:55
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Schenn5:34
xG 0.01–0.78 (1%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schultz9:58
xG 0.76–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto3:12
xG 0.50–0.11 (81%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schenn2:27
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).