Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 111 | 113 | 332 |
| COL | 08 | 110 | 016 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:49MINErik HaulaAssists: Justin Fontaine, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:32COLMax TalbotAssists: Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.00 xG1–1
- P2 9:09MINJustin FontaineGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:50MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:24MINMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:15MINSean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:58COLBrad Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:41MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:27COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P2 12:06MINJordan Schroeder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:59MINJustin Fontaine: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:13COLZach Redmond: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:50MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:50COLNate Guenin: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:33COLTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:31MINChristian Folin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:43MINNate Prosser: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:56MINCharlie Coyle: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:56COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Bergenheim – Vanek8:35
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:14
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Schroeder – Coyle – Niederreiter9:04
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Haula – Fontaine5:03
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba5:32
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Brodin – Folin2:18
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba3:42
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Mitchell – MacKinnon3:33
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – Everberg2:08
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg4:55
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Cliche – Carey – MacKinnon5:01
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Hejda2:49
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Holden – Redmond2:26
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hejda – Redmond8:06
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).