Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 08 | 112 | 227 |
| EDM | 05 | 19 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Paul Stastny, Patrik Berglund · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:31EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 14:20STLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P3 5:14EDMMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:08EDMDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:06STLPaul Stastny: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Hendricks
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Berglund – Jaskin12:41
xG 1.48–0.47 (76%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:37
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie13:35
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves7:50
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo18:09
xG 0.78–0.28 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Jackman – Cole13:54
xG 1.07–0.62 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Lindbohm18:25
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic3:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer2:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Hamilton – Purcell2:09
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins15:44
xG 0.71–0.83 (46%)attempts 23–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Klefbom18:14
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Fayne – Marincin14:15
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Ference – Oesterle14:06
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).