Sun, Mar 1, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 04 | 19 | 17 | 220 |
| WPG | 19 | 312 | 18 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Mark Scheifele, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:18LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:43WPGTyler MyersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:25WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 19:16WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 14:49LAKJeff CarterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:04WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:00LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:59WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 11:02LAKMarian Gaborik: Holding2 min
- P2 12:40LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:40LAKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:03WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 14:26WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:26LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:26LAKKyle Clifford: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:26WPGAnthony Peluso: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Nolan – Andreoff3:44
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Andreoff3:07
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis7:23
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Williams – Stoll – Lewis5:06
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin9:59
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty10:34
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Doughty7:58
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Wheeler – Lowry11:22
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Stafford – Tlusty – Scheifele12:52
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
- Ladd – Little – Frolik13:58
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Harrison – Byfuglien14:46
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Myers13:23
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 2–2
- Stuart – Trouba12:07
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).