Sun, Mar 1, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 06 | 29 | 325 |
| PIT | 111 | 316 | 114 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:34PITDavid PerronPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 4:20PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 17:07PITDerrick PouliotPPGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 0:18PITSteve DownieAssists: Daniel Winnik, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 5:37CBJRyan JohansenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 19:06CBJNick FolignoAssists: Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 16:43PITSimon Despres: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:02PITPaul Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:19CBJJames Wisniewski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:26CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48PITSimon Despres: Holding2 min
- P2 9:04CBJAlexander Wennberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:50CBJJared Boll: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:28CBJJack Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:31CBJCorey Tropp: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:31CBJCorey Tropp: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:53
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Clarkson – Anisimov7:01
xG 0.00–0.20 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Dano – Wennberg5:43
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen8:50
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Goloubef – Prout10:18
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard16:26
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 13–24goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Wisniewski11:34
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Perron9:36
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Spaling – Bennett8:08
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Downie – Sutter6:44
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau7:58
xG 0.28–0.61 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang12:04
xG 0.82–0.14 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Scuderi – Despres11:42
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot9:48
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).