Sun, Mar 1, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 5, Vancouver Canucks 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 09 | 317 | 01 | 1 | 539 |
| VAN | 210 | 211 | 19 | 01 | 3 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02STLRyan ReavesAssists: Steve Ott, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:59STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 7:24VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Chris Higgins, Linden Vey · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 9:40VANYannick WeberAssists: Radim Vrbata, Derek Dorsett · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:15VANJannik HansenAssists: Ronalds Kenins, Ryan Stanton · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:52VANHenrik SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Ronalds Kenins · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
- P3 6:07VANNick BoninoAssists: Yannick Weber, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 8:18STLDmitrij JaskinPPAssists: Paul Stastny, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 14:19STLPetteri LindbohmAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 15:31STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. VAN Nick Bonino scored
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 5. VAN Chris Higgins scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 15:31STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:35STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:35VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:06STLSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:06STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:06VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:06VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:06STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:33VANLinden Vey: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:04VANYannick Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:26VANAdam Clendening: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P3 11:36STLJori Lehtera: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Berglund – Jaskin12:00
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves2:55
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:44
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:31
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole10:36
xG 0.46–0.16 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Lindbohm15:03
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo15:07
xG 0.39–0.85 (31%)attempts 9–15goals 2–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins9:31
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Dorsett – Bonino8:14
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 2–2
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian9:14
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Higgins – Matthias – Vey6:24
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber15:07
xG 0.83–0.40 (68%)attempts 18–14goals 3–0
- Biega – Sbisa12:59
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Stanton – Clendening12:40
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).