Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 121 | 010 | 134 |
| NJD | 29 | 06 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58NJDAdam LarssonAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 3:57NJDEric GelinasPPGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:11NSHMike FisherAssists: Craig Smith, Victor Bartley · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:46NJDMichael CammalleriENAssists: Mark Fraser, Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:16NSHVictor Bartley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:16NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:58NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10NJDPeter Harrold: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:50NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Bourque5:28
xG 0.86–0.13 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg8:12
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Wilson – Jarnkrok5:07
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Jarnkrok – Forsberg2:57
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:43
xG 1.67–0.83 (67%)attempts 21–19goals 0–1
- Franson – Bartley8:43
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones17:18
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique10:38
xG 0.44–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac12:17
xG 0.48–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Gionta9:05
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson9:09
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson14:51
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Fraser – Gelinas10:53
xG 0.30–0.80 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).