Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 216 | 17 | 210 | 533 |
| CBJ | 06 | 211 | 113 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Nicklas Backstrom · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:20WSHEric FehrAssists: Tim Gleason, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 1:51CBJDavid SavardAssists: Scott Hartnell, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:39WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jason Chimera, Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 15:03CBJScott HartnellAssists: Jack Johnson, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 3:17WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 9:07CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 19:51WSHMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (21)
- P1 4:10CBJDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:45CBJJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:45WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:22WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:22CBJCody Goloubef: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P2 5:35CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35CBJJared Boll: Charging2 min
- P2 5:35WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35WSHTom Wilson: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 8:47WSHMike Green: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:19WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:19CBJDalton Prout: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:19CBJDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:14WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:14CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 1:58CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:58CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:44WSHMarcus Johansson: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr11:44
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson2:59
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov4:18
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:46
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson17:32
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:40
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Gleason – Green13:22
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dano – Wennberg7:19
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–0goals 1–0
- Gibbons – Dano – Wennberg3:26
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen14:45
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Clarkson – Anisimov4:05
xG 0.04–0.45 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Prout2:11
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard16:13
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout7:04
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).