Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 27 | 011 | 05 | 2 | 233 |
| MIN | 012 | 213 | 011 | 02 | 3 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:52MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 8:05MINMathew DumbaAssists: Chris Stewart, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 8:33OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:48OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 2. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 3. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 4. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. MIN Jason Pominville scored
- 6. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 7. MIN Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 8. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 9. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
- 10. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:55MINNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min
- P2 6:01OTTMatt Puempel: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:18OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:57OTTMilan Michalek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:37MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:48MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:53
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel6:04
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar8:36
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone11:58
xG 0.20–0.42 (33%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gryba – Borowiecki10:26
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:54
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:24
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Bergenheim – Stewart4:13
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Vanek – Stewart7:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund10:13
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Bergenheim – Coyle – Niederreiter7:28
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba5:45
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba4:17
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin11:11
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).