Tue, Mar 3, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 118 | 09 | 19 | 01 | 237 |
| DAL | 09 | 013 | 29 | 14 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:25NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 2:24DALBrett RitchieAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 7:28DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 19:58NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 2:18DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:48NYIMatt Martin: Kneeing5 min
- P1 1:48NYIMatt Martin: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 13:21DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49NYIAnders Lee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:21NYICal Clutterbuck: Delaying game2 min
- P2 16:31NYIThomas Hickey: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:46DALJohn Klingberg: Concealing puck2 min
- P3 16:38NYIRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:18DALBrett Ritchie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:54
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- McDonald – Grabner – Nelson2:20
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- McDonald – Kulemin – Nelson2:50
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Strome2:55
xG 0.01–0.23 (6%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan11:07
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:38
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:21
xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Benn4:41
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt2:33
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie4:15
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eaves – Benn2:08
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg14:22
xG 1.11–0.84 (57%)attempts 29–20goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn12:01
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Jokipakka9:34
xG 0.52–0.71 (43%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).