Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 214 | 28 | 17 | 529 |
| EDM | 04 | 111 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Lewis · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:01LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 2:18LAKJeff CarterSHGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 13:18EDMLuke GazdicAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Boyd Gordon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:59LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Nicholas Shore, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 0:26LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Trevor Lewis, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 5:36EDMTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:36LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:46EDMMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:11LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:52EDMBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:18EDMRyan Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:28LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis11:58
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli9:36
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore8:52
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Williams – Stoll – Brown10:16
xG 0.09–0.23 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty18:30
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Sekera – McNabb13:24
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin13:31
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Purcell – Yakupov11:28
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Gordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic5:35
xG 0.18–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:25
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Hendricks – Hamilton – Fraser8:03
xG 0.07–0.76 (9%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Oesterle9:26
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Oesterle3:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Fayne2:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).