Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 6, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 37 | 118 | 25 | 630 |
| VAN | 010 | 211 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03SJSChris TierneyAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:18SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 7:45SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Matt Nieto, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 1:01VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 9:12VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Chris Higgins · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 11:45SJSMatt NietoAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:11SJSMatt NietoENAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.56 xG5–2
- P3 18:09SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicENAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.45 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:53SJSJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:53VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:41SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:31SJSMatt Irwin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24VANChris Higgins: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:20SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:54SJSPatrick Marleau: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:59SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestScott – Goodrow – Tierney6:47
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson10:24
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto11:56
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Smith – Wingels – Hertl10:09
xG 0.03–0.28 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun15:47
xG 0.85–0.65 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Burns – Irwin14:32
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Dillon – Mueller14:41
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins9:04
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Matthias – Bonino – McMillan7:57
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Higgins – Dorsett – Vey7:52
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata9:23
xG 0.25–0.88 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Clendening11:29
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Corrado14:05
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Hamhuis – Clendening2:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).