Wed, Mar 4, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 211 | 03 | 320 |
| WPG | 015 | 08 | 113 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Cody Ceci, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 9:07OTTBobby RyanPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 11:54OTTErik CondraAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 5:46WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Lee Stempniak, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:33OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:03OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:58WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:56OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar5:52
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Condra – Zibanejad4:24
xG 0.09–0.18 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Greening – Chiasson11:31
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone9:31
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci13:05
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki13:36
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:07
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Tlusty – Scheifele13:02
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Frolik – Lowry6:33
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso4:38
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik4:58
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers16:26
xG 0.68–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Harrison – Trouba3:31
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Harrison – Byfuglien9:59
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).