Wed, Mar 4, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 1, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 012 | 111 | 138 |
| ANA | 110 | 114 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 10:16ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Jiri Sekac, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P3 17:58ANACam FowlerENAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–3
- P3 18:19MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:39MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:39ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:28ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:05ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:52ANAClayton Stoner: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Eller – Gallagher3:27
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:23
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Flynn – de la Rose2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose7:57
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Petry16:19
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Beaulieu10:24
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban20:42
xG 0.63–1.32 (32%)attempts 21–23goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestEtem – Rakell – Sekac7:15
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Maroon7:20
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Silfverberg15:02
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri11:37
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm16:45
xG 1.13–0.54 (68%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Stoner – Manson14:34
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler17:52
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).