Thu, Mar 5, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 111 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 432 |
| BOS | 111 | 112 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dougie Hamilton · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:49CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:30BOSMilan LucicAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:26CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:59CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:40BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Chris Kelly, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Ryan Spooner stopped
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 3. BOS Torey Krug stopped
- 4. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 6. CGY Jiri Hudler stopped
- 7. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 8. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 9. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
- 10. CGY Mason Raymond stopped
- 11. BOS Reilly Smith stopped
- 12. CGY Drew Shore stopped
- 13. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 14. CGY Josh Jooris scored
- 15. BOS Milan Lucic stopped
- 16. CGY David Schlemko scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:29CGYDavid Schlemko: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:14BOSMax Talbot: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:21BOSMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17BOSReilly Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:19CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:40BOSRyan Spooner: Interference2 min
- P3 3:55BOSMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:08CGYTJ Brodie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:35BOSReilly Smith: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Colborne – Bouma3:51
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Shore – Bollig – Poirier2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bouma – Shore3:32
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:07
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Diaz4:43
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie2:08
xG 0.10–0.51 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Engelland – Brodie15:25
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg2:32
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:57
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak10:36
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Paille – Eriksson – Soderberg7:23
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton14:34
xG 1.01–0.26 (80%)attempts 27–8goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Krug4:13
xG 0.53–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Bartkowski6:44
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).