Thu, Mar 5, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 010 | 18 | 02 | 1 | 432 |
| FLA | 17 | 212 | 02 | 03 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33DALCurtis McKenzieAssists: Jason Demers, Shawn Horcoff · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:41DALShawn HorcoffUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 17:00FLABrandon PirriAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:15FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:28FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 12:21DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: John Klingberg · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Brandon Pirri stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 3. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 4. DAL John Klingberg stopped
- 5. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 6. DAL Colton Sceviour scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:24DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:24FLADmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:25FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:07FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 16:28DALPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P3 5:36DALAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Benn8:42
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt7:39
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Eaves – Benn – Eakin4:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie8:21
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Demers – Benn16:50
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Jokipakka11:25
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg19:51
xG 1.13–1.40 (45%)attempts 28–10goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad10:25
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky8:36
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Upshall – Huberdeau – Barkov10:20
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck12:05
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Petrovic13:47
xG 1.41–0.27 (84%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kampfer2:19
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Petrovic2:00
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).