Thu, Mar 5, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 4, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 25 | 012 | 29 | 426 |
| NSH | 115 | 05 | 211 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:24NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:30NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Nick Leddy, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 19:58NSHColin WilsonAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 8:39NYINick LeddyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 10:16NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 10:47NSHCraig SmithAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 13:52NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Michael Grabner, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:03NSHPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:16NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson11:36
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee14:15
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Strome11:44
xG 0.62–0.93 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Boulton – McDonald – Cizikas5:57
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:04
xG 0.42–0.73 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Hamonic – de Haan16:34
xG 0.49–0.98 (34%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:52
xG 0.80–1.57 (34%)attempts 15–26goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Wilson14:16
xG 0.90–0.28 (76%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque9:00
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Santorelli – Jarnkrok9:08
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:32
xG 0.90–0.71 (56%)attempts 24–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Jones17:05
xG 1.44–0.63 (70%)attempts 23–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi21:03
xG 1.32–0.62 (68%)attempts 27–21goals 1–1
- Ellis – Ekholm10:55
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).