Fri, Mar 6, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 28 | 29 | 524 |
| DET | 214 | 015 | 06 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:12DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 10:27CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 6:03CGYMatt StajanAssists: Brandon Bollig · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:10CGYJiri HudlerGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 1:50CGYMason RaymondAssists: Drew Shore, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 18:54CGYJiri HudlerENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:36CGYMason Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:57DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09DETStephen Weiss: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:30DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 14:35CGYKris Russell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Raymond – Shore – Jooris8:06
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Ferland7:31
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:05
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma12:09
xG 0.24–0.92 (21%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Diaz7:59
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell19:15
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 10–24goals 2–1
- Engelland – Brodie16:43
xG 0.37–1.41 (21%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:47
xG 1.05–0.03 (97%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Weiss – Nyquist – Sheahan8:25
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Jurco8:30
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Weiss – Sheahan – Jurco2:22
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser15:23
xG 0.94–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – DeKeyser2:28
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:02
xG 0.43–0.30 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).