Fri, Mar 6, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 118 | 011 | 013 | 05 | 0 | 147 |
| CHI | 012 | 012 | 113 | 02 | 1 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:15EDMDerek RoyAssists: Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 13:58CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
- 5. EDM Teddy Purcell stopped
- 6. CHI Antoine Vermette scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:36EDMJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:38EDMMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- OT 4:55EDMDerek Roy: Embellishment2 min
- OT 4:55CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins15:36
xG 0.94–0.86 (52%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer3:29
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Gordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic4:32
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov15:05
xG 0.63–0.78 (45%)attempts 15–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom20:18
xG 1.32–0.91 (59%)attempts 30–20goals 1–0
- Fayne – Marincin16:34
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Ference – Oesterle11:08
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Versteeg – Toews11:26
xG 1.14–0.93 (55%)attempts 20–23goals 1–1
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Shaw10:23
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Desjardins8:50
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Vermette – Sharp – Saad13:55
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson13:10
xG 1.28–0.43 (75%)attempts 24–13goals 1–0
- Timonen – Rundblad5:27
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Hjalmarsson6:43
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).