Fri, Mar 6, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 311 | 25 | 521 |
| ANA | 08 | 07 | 214 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:51PITBlake ComeauAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 11:53PITPatric HornqvistAssists: David Perron, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 18:57PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 2:03PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 9:03ANATomas FleischmannAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 13:08ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, Emerson Etem · Slap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 19:49PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Brandon Sutter, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46PITDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 1:46ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:00PITRob Scuderi: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:11ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:54PITDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:28PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53ANASimon Despres: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:04ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 17:47ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau10:32
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Winnik – Sutter – Bennett7:17
xG 0.09–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron11:59
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Spaling7:31
xG 0.08–0.50 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Cole11:01
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang17:14
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Pouliot10:48
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 3–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Etem – Rakell2:09
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri5:44
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac3:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Silfverberg9:18
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Fowler13:05
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 1–2
- Stoner – Manson13:23
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:04
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).