Sat, Mar 7, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 17 | 112 | 02 | 231 |
| BOS | 110 | 010 | 111 | 16 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 9:43PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 15:30PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Nick Schultz, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:45BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 3:52BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Max Talbot, Ryan Spooner · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:29PHIRyan White: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:18BOSAdam McQuaid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:15PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:58BOSMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34PHIRyan White: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:57PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Read – Couturier6:06
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl7:15
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier4:08
xG 0.07–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare5:46
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Colaiacovo2:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Schenn2:26
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – MacDonald10:50
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:14
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak9:03
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:35
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille9:19
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – McQuaid2:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski14:17
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:01
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).