Sat, Mar 7, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 211 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 328 |
| FLA | 17 | 15 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51FLAErik GudbransonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 4:39NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:20FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Alexander Petrovic · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 15:37NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:26FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 12:48NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 4. FLA Brandon Pirri stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:30NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:10FLABrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:13FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:58NYIAnders Lee: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:58FLAErik Gudbranson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:38NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:38FLAJimmy Hayes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:41FLAWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee14:30
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson8:50
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:17
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Strome11:35
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey13:39
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:47
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Hamonic – de Haan17:31
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad10:25
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:13
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Upshall7:24
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau2:57
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic13:34
xG 0.51–0.29 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson15:24
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Campbell – Kampfer16:45
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).