Sat, Mar 7, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 18 | 111 | 326 |
| NSH | 04 | 110 | 07 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Andrew Ladd, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 10:17NSHRyan EllisAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 10:52WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 19:10WPGDrew StaffordENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:20WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 8:57NSHCraig Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:32WPGAnthony Peluso: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:17WPGLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:17NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25NSHFilip Forsberg: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Stafford – Scheifele14:36
xG 0.66–0.62 (51%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – O'Dell4:59
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry11:32
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Slater – Stempniak – Tlusty8:58
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba17:33
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers17:04
xG 0.78–0.60 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Harrison – Pardy8:31
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Beck – Bourque6:20
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:27
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Santorelli – Jarnkrok8:25
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson13:42
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:52
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm12:55
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones2:39
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).