Sun, Mar 8, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 29 | 15 | 420 |
| CAR | 010 | 315 | 410 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 6:45EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Matt Hendricks, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.60 xG2–0
- P2 7:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.32 xG3–0
- P2 9:22CARAlexander SeminAssists: Riley Nash, Michal Jordan · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 13:00CARElias LindholmAssists: Ron Hainsey, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 15:23CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.38 xG3–3
- P3 1:40CARAndrej NestrasilPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 6:18CARJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Murphy, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 6:49CARElias LindholmAssists: Victor Rask, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
- P3 9:31EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG4–6
- P3 18:40CARElias LindholmENAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:40CARRasmus Rissanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:40EDMLuke Gazdic: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:55CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 14:09EDMJustin Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03EDMTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:33EDMMartin Marincin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:22EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:22EDMJordan Eberle: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:22CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eberle – Fraser – Nugent-Hopkins4:51
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Hamilton – Fraser4:06
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov11:11
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Gordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic4:18
xG 0.01–0.19 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Aulie2:15
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Aulie7:11
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oesterle3:38
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Staal – Nestrasil10:47
xG 0.86–0.11 (89%)attempts 20–1goals 0–1
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm9:22
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner8:30
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone9:24
xG 0.30–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk13:32
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 21–5goals 1–1
- Liles – Jordan12:13
xG 0.67–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Rissanen – Murphy15:17
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).