Sun, Mar 8, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 18 | 18 | 321 |
| MIN | 011 | 07 | 216 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:05COLCody McLeodAssists: Jarome Iginla, Zach Redmond · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 18:09COLZach RedmondAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Jan Hejda · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 1:19COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 14:04MINChris StewartAssists: Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:41MINThomas VanekAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:43COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:43MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:43MINErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:50MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:24MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:20COLDennis Everberg: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tanguay won the faceoff against Niederreiter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Hamilton – Landeskog7:50
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Hishon3:18
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog4:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg10:09
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Guenin – Barrie13:04
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden14:42
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden3:17
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Stewart – Niederreiter9:49
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine4:42
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund14:14
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Haula – Fontaine4:25
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin12:00
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Prosser – Dumba6:54
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon6:22
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).