Sun, Mar 8, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 011 | 424 | 01 | 2 | 446 |
| OTT | 215 | 216 | 09 | 02 | 3 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:52OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Mark Stone, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 2:34OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Erik Condra · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 7:10OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 6:56CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 11:28CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 12:27CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mason Raymond, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 17:42CGYKris RussellAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 7. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 8. CGY David Schlemko stopped
- 9. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 10. CGY Jiri Hudler scored
- 11. OTT Erik Karlsson scored
- 12. CGY Josh Jooris stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:42CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:53CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:33OTTKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:10CGYJoe Colborne: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:31OTTMatt Puempel: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Backlund – Colborne4:01
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Stajan – Colborne – Bouma3:50
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma7:41
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bollig4:23
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Schlemko4:01
xG 1.04–0.07 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Brodie – Diaz8:08
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell20:17
xG 0.90–1.15 (44%)attempts 23–24goals 2–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar11:21
xG 1.44–0.32 (82%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel7:36
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone12:34
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:59
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Borowiecki13:22
xG 1.07–0.47 (69%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Methot – Ceci2:15
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci10:49
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).