Sun, Mar 8, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 010 | 217 | 339 |
| BOS | 216 | 27 | 17 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15BOSBrad MarchandSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:01DETGustav NyquistAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:12BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 11:44BOSDaniel PailleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 18:39BOSDaniel PailleGWGAssists: Max Talbot, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 1:24DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 4:03BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
- P3 6:02DETMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.04 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:13BOSReilly Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:42DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 18:21BOSLoui Eriksson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:02BOSMilan Lucic: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:02BOSGregory Campbell: Holding2 min
- P2 12:27DETDrew Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:50DETJoakim Andersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42BOSCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:53DETRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader8:56
xG 0.78–0.07 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Sheahan – Pulkkinen9:20
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Glendening7:49
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Weiss – Miller – Andersson4:13
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Smith10:23
xG 1.23–0.04 (97%)attempts 22–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson12:50
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:09
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Talbot – Paille8:48
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg7:56
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith8:39
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak5:30
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton7:04
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:13
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Krug2:02
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).