Mon, Mar 9, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 07 | 117 | 238 |
| DET | 07 | 210 | 39 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15EDMRob KlinkhammerAssists: Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P2 0:21DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Erik Cole, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:04DETRiley SheahanAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Teemu Pulkkinen · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 10:40DETTeemu PulkkinenGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:05EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:56DETJustin AbdelkaderENAssists: Riley Sheahan, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.68 xG2–4
- P3 19:42DETPavel DatsyukENAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:52DETMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:03EDMRyan Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:28EDMMatt Fraser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:28EDMRob Klinkhammer: Interference2 min
- P3 4:34DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:12DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:40DETHenrik Zetterberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer7:55
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins10:22
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov12:41
xG 0.40–0.52 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Lander – Fraser9:24
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Klefbom16:03
xG 0.80–0.84 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Fayne – Marincin11:46
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ference – Oesterle8:14
xG 0.22–0.78 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:18
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Glendening10:58
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Sheahan – Pulkkinen9:02
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Jurco5:08
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Smith14:17
xG 0.82–0.51 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:45
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:46
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).