Mon, Mar 9, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 08 | 110 | 130 |
| VAN | 15 | 05 | 16 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:57VANBo HorvatAssists: Jannik Hansen, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 8:40ANAEmerson EtemAssists: Nate Thompson, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 16:01VANZack KassianGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:41VANRyan Stanton: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:35VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:53VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53ANAPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:53VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:02VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Etem – Sekac5:02
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Palmieri8:48
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Silfverberg7:35
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Cogliano – Rakell5:30
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Fowler15:25
xG 0.86–0.11 (88%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:11
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Stoner15:36
xG 0.56–0.80 (41%)attempts 24–10goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Matthias – Bonino8:47
xG 0.33–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian10:20
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Hansen – McMillan – Horvat7:07
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Vey9:36
xG 0.05–0.31 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev17:47
xG 0.85–0.67 (56%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Stanton – Corrado12:57
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa14:38
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).