Mon, Mar 9, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 015 | 09 | 113 | 03 | 1 | 140 |
| SJS | 16 | 015 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:03SJSMatt NietoAssists: Chris Tierney, Ben Smith · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 7:22PITSidney CrosbyAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 2. PIT David Perron stopped
- 3. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. SJS Melker Karlsson scored
- 6. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 7. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
- 8. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 9. SJS Brent Burns stopped
- 10. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 11. SJS Joe Thornton stopped
- 12. PIT Brandon Sutter stopped
- 13. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 14. PIT Beau Bennett stopped
- 15. SJS Tommy Wingels scored
- 16. PIT Steve Downie stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:27PITSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:00PITRob Scuderi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:29SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:07SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:57PITDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 14:57SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min
- P3 10:47PITSteve Downie: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:13PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:13SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:33SJSTommy Wingels: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Comeau12:14
xG 1.24–0.29 (81%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Perron10:48
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Winnik – Bennett4:22
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling4:36
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Pouliot13:03
xG 1.78–0.21 (89%)attempts 29–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang14:43
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Cole11:29
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Goodrow – Hertl3:52
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Scott – Smith – Tierney3:40
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:20
xG 0.51–0.61 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Wingels – Hertl – Tierney5:42
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Burns11:16
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun16:17
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Dillon – Mueller12:59
xG 0.34–1.24 (21%)attempts 9–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).