Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 016 | 114 | 239 |
| PHI | 114 | 07 | 05 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13PHILuke SchennAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 11:23DALBrett RitchieAssists: Curtis McKenzie, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 13:50DALVernon FiddlerGWGAssists: Colton Sceviour, Ryan Garbutt · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:29PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:17DALColton Sceviour: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:39PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:45DALAles Hemsky: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 0:00DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:49PHIRyan White: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Roussel9:05
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin10:05
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie10:25
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Garbutt8:17
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth12:27
xG 1.05–0.39 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak11:11
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg13:49
xG 0.87–0.53 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn13:13
xG 1.24–0.56 (69%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- White – Rinaldo – Raffl6:56
xG 0.12–0.43 (21%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare9:51
xG 0.06–0.82 (7%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier8:45
xG 0.25–1.30 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Colaiacovo – Schenn12:28
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Streit – Colaiacovo2:37
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Grossmann – MacDonald14:03
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).