Tue, Mar 10, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 16 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 432 |
| CAR | 313 | 07 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36CARJustin FaulkAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:47CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:05CBJRene BourquePPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 19:50CAREric StaalPPAssists: Ryan Murphy, Justin Faulk · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 2:21CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–3
- P3 6:10CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 2. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
- 3. CBJ Artem Anisimov stopped
- 4. CAR Victor Rask stopped
- 5. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
- 6. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:33CARBrad Malone: Holding2 min
- P1 12:40CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:40CARNathan Gerbe: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:24CARRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41CBJMarko Dano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:27CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:58CBJCody Goloubef: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:13CBJRene Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:08CARJustin Faulk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Atkinson – Johansen10:42
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Dano – Wennberg12:16
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Adam5:37
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Tropp7:27
xG 0.16–0.75 (17%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout15:08
xG 1.05–0.49 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Connauton11:47
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard18:00
xG 0.67–0.83 (44%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Rask – Lindholm11:02
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Semin – Nash – Skinner9:44
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone7:41
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Staal – Nestrasil10:31
xG 0.44–0.88 (33%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bellemore – Jordan13:15
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Rissanen – Murphy12:13
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Bellemore – Rissanen2:51
xG 0.02–0.09 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).