Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Montréal Canadiens 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 013 | 010 | 13 | 136 |
| MTL | 06 | 011 | 02 | 00 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:03TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:56MTLDavid Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:45MTLTom Gilbert: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:52TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:31MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:23MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00de la Rose won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov6:36
xG 0.62–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin4:55
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:08
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Drouin4:16
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:56
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Garrison10:38
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr5:55
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise11:58
xG 0.08–0.12 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose8:33
xG 0.09–0.15 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:08
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Flynn4:50
xG 0.02–0.40 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Beaulieu11:50
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:23
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Petry17:11
xG 0.17–1.33 (11%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).