Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 310 | 04 | 322 |
| OTT | 08 | 021 | 111 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:02BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 15:21BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 16:53BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Milan Lucic, David Pastrnak · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 8:30OTTMatt PuempelAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:59BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49BOSDavid Pastrnak: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 0:45OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:14BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 7:14OTTCurtis Lazar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:45OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:45BOSGregory Campbell: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:46OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Spooner – Pastrnak8:56
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg9:18
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:39
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille9:56
xG 0.00–0.85 (0%)attempts 1–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton10:43
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug2:04
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski12:54
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Puempel2:24
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel4:47
xG 0.37–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar6:37
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:49
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci13:12
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki7:55
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:47
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).