Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 4, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 04 | 36 | 416 |
| STL | 14 | 37 | 116 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Andrew Ladd, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:20STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:31STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:08STLSteve OttAssists: David Backes, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 11:09STLJori LehteraAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 1:34WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–4
- P3 1:45WPGLee StempniakAssists: Adam Lowry, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:32WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 18:57STLBarret JackmanGWGAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, David Backes · Slap, 0.01 xG4–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:11STLPetteri Lindbohm: Holding2 min
- P1 5:25STLPetteri Lindbohm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:53WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:53WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 12:53STLAlexander Steen: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:07WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:07STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01STLChris Butler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:15STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:51STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:02WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:02STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:33WPGJiri Tlusty: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:03WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:04WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:27WPGEric O'Dell: Instigator2 min
- P3 13:27WPGEric O'Dell: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:27WPGEric O'Dell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:27STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSlater – Stempniak – Tlusty6:07
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Tlusty – Scheifele3:17
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Stafford – Frolik2:49
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Peluso – O'Dell3:56
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Pardy8:05
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba12:04
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 2–2
- Stuart – Pardy2:19
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:06
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Steen – Stastny – Berglund8:30
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie3:07
xG 0.04–0.01 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin2:30
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo11:23
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Butler – Lindbohm14:57
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Jackman – Bortuzzo8:03
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).