Wed, Mar 11, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 012 | 17 | 331 |
| WSH | 19 | 04 | 016 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Kevin Hayes, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:43WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:34NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 17:33NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:00NYRDan Boyle: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:04NYRDominic Moore: Interference2 min
- P1 19:46NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:27WSHCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:16WSHAlex Ovechkin: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 10:16NYRTanner Glass: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:16WSHTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Miller8:29
xG 0.50–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider11:14
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:10
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast9:01
xG 0.06–0.27 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:20
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal10:38
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Boyle – Yandle4:41
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Brouwer – Beagle5:46
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:07
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr9:06
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov2:39
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Schilling8:04
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Carlson2:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gleason – Niskanen2:50
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).