Thu, Mar 12, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 016 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 237 |
| BOS | 115 | 04 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Ryan Spooner, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:29TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:20BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 8:04TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Mark Barberio, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 2. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 4. TBL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:38TBLMark Barberio: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:49BOSLoui Eriksson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:52TBLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 12:09TBLJason Garrison: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:55TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- OT 0:51BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- OT 0:51TBLAlex Killorn: Embellishment2 min
- OT 2:11BOSMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min
- OT 3:59TBLSteven Stamkos: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos14:58
xG 0.80–0.35 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Angelidis – Brown5:58
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:49
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin9:30
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Sustr10:05
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Stralman – Nesterov4:53
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Garrison – Hedman11:02
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Spooner – Pastrnak9:21
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille8:27
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:55
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg13:07
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug12:33
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski15:28
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:31
xG 0.34–0.64 (34%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).