Thu, Mar 12, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 314 | 010 | 28 | 532 |
| CAR | 14 | 07 | 27 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06CARVictor RaskAssists: Brett Bellemore, Michal Jordan · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 7:37DALCurtis McKenzieAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Brett Ritchie · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 10:38DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Cody Eakin, Patrick Eaves · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 16:25DALJason DemersUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 11:37DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 13:58CARAndrej NestrasilAssists: Chris Terry, Victor Rask · Deflected, 0.38 xG4–2
- P3 14:46CARChris TerryAssists: Brett Bellemore, Victor Rask · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 18:50DALPatrick EavesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:23DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:23CAREric Staal: Embellishment2 min
- P2 2:13DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 11:04DALShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
- P3 1:19CARRasmus Rissanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Eaves – Sceviour7:46
xG 0.39–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie10:04
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin13:38
xG 1.08–1.21 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel10:20
xG 0.09–0.68 (11%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Jokipakka16:09
xG 1.17–0.76 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Demers – Oleksiak13:13
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Benn – Nemeth16:10
xG 0.57–1.34 (30%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nestrasil – Rask8:00
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Semin – Staal – Staal14:11
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- McClement – Dwyer – Gerbe8:44
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm10:00
xG 0.31–1.06 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk19:04
xG 1.30–0.48 (73%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Rissanen – Murphy13:16
xG 0.60–0.88 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
- Bellemore – Jordan14:56
xG 0.61–0.99 (38%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).