Thu, Mar 12, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 16 | 18 | 220 |
| FLA | 18 | 16 | 26 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:28FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Dave Bolland, Shawn Thornton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 9:14WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Adam Pardy · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:07FLABrad BoyesPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 6:13WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Michael Frolik, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 16:07FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:14FLANick BjugstadENAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:03FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 7:04WPGToby Enstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:45WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:49WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 9:38FLABrandon Pirri: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frolik won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Tlusty – Frolik4:10
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Scheifele3:04
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Tlusty – Scheifele10:47
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Slater – Peluso – O'Dell4:43
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Pardy6:07
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Trouba7:06
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Harrison – Pardy5:45
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:12
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck11:57
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad11:29
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Bolland8:43
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:56
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:14
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov15:55
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).