Thu, Mar 12, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 0, St. Louis Blues 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 06 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 028 |
| STL | 08 | 08 | 017 | 02 | 2 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 4. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:24STLSteve Ott: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 8:37STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:51PHINicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P1 17:20STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:56STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P2 18:28PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Raffl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier11:45
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn10:24
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare5:02
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- White – Rinaldo – Raffl6:55
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Grossmann – MacDonald11:13
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz13:34
xG 0.24–0.59 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Schenn14:22
xG 0.08–0.50 (14%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Jaskin11:08
xG 0.68–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves6:03
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Porter – Oshie9:07
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:14
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Bortuzzo12:27
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo13:49
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Lindbohm12:58
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).