Thu, Mar 12, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
New Jersey Devils 1, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 14 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 124 |
| COL | 03 | 110 | 012 | 04 | 2 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:27COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 14:12NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Adam Henrique, Adam Larsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 2. NJD Scott Gomez stopped
- 3. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 5. COL Jarome Iginla scored
- 6. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:32COLJan Hejda: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:44COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P3 8:41NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:33NJDEric Gelinas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Cliche
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Gionta10:17
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac11:58
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique12:29
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson15:59
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Fraser – Gelinas6:36
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:16
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Duchene7:48
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg5:43
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brière – Caron – Hamilton2:53
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:44
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Redmond7:29
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Stuart – Hejda6:29
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Redmond4:35
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).