Thu, Mar 12, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 0, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 09 | 012 | 035 |
| SJS | 06 | 18 | 17 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:41SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Tommy Wingels, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.40 xG0–1
- P3 19:01SJSTommy WingelsENAssists: Chris Tierney, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:49NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:16NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 11:15NSHJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:28NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26SJSPatrick Marleau: Holding2 min
- P3 14:20SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:11NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith11:26
xG 0.46–0.07 (86%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Wilson2:26
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque5:01
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Santorelli – Stalberg8:15
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm13:52
xG 1.21–0.34 (78%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi19:05
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Franson – Jones8:26
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:59
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Wingels – Hertl – Tierney11:39
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow5:06
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto10:51
xG 0.09–0.90 (9%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Burns13:40
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Dillon – Mueller12:42
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun17:33
xG 0.06–1.07 (5%)attempts 7–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).