Fri, Mar 13, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 29 | 010 | 228 |
| NYI | 06 | 022 | 17 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:32OTTMatt PuempelAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Patrick Wiercioch · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 18:53OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 11:59NYITyler KennedyAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:03NYIRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:58OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min
- P2 12:40OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22OTTDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:36
xG 0.87–0.30 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone11:58
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar12:40
xG 0.67–0.40 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Legwand – Chiasson – Puempel5:19
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci14:51
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Methot – Karlsson15:40
xG 1.07–0.56 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen12:19
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson6:10
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Lee – Strome5:50
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee2:33
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Nelson3:16
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – de Haan15:18
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hamonic3:01
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Strait – Hamonic16:10
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).