Fri, Mar 13, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 314 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 435 |
| CBJ | 211 | 17 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43CBJMarko DanoAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:57CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:18EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:56EDMDerek RoyPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ben Scrivens · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 16:51CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Nick Foligno, Corey Tropp · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:11EDMAndrew FerenceAssists: Justin Schultz, Benoit Pouliot · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:26EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 16:23CBJScott HartnellAssists: Marko Dano, Alexander Wennberg · Tip-in, 0.35 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 2. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 3. CBJ Ryan Johansen stopped
- 4. EDM Nail Yakupov stopped
- 5. CBJ Artem Anisimov stopped
- 6. EDM Derek Roy stopped
- 7. CBJ Jack Johnson stopped
- 8. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 9. CBJ Alexander Wennberg scored
- 10. EDM Teddy Purcell stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:10CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:10EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:24EDMNail Yakupov: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55EDMKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:43CBJCorey Tropp: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:56EDMDerek Roy: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 6:01CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:48CBJRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57CBJKevin Connauton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:31CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Purcell – Yakupov11:45
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Gordon – Klinkhammer – Gazdic6:08
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:56
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Lander – Fraser8:33
xG 0.22–0.71 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ference – Aulie10:44
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Schultz – Klefbom16:11
xG 0.18–0.32 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin12:58
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dano – Wennberg12:22
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Foligno – Anisimov – Tropp8:17
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Adam4:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Atkinson – Johansen10:26
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard14:29
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Prout14:08
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murray16:07
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).