Fri, Mar 13, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 110 | 07 | 224 |
| MIN | 016 | 18 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 11:31MINZach ParisePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.46 xG1–1
- P2 13:45ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Ryan Kesler · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:10MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:10ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:52ANATomas Fleischmann: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:17MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:04ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:44MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:53ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:19MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:38MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19ANAClayton Stoner: Holding2 min
- P3 6:40ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey10:53
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Etem – Rakell5:07
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Silfverberg10:47
xG 0.41–0.69 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Sekac6:10
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Despres – Fowler10:30
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Stoner11:32
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm11:52
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Stewart – Niederreiter8:39
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund8:35
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Brodziak – Haula7:13
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine8:21
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Dumba8:43
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:11
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin11:15
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).