Sat, Mar 14, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Chicago Blackhawks 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 14 | 417 | 630 |
| SJS | 114 | 112 | 09 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Antoine Vermette, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 16:49SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 8:45CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:16SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 1:21CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Corey Crawford · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 4:56CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brad Richards, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 15:10CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 17:44CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.67 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:46CHIBryan Bickell: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:32SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:08CHIAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 7:35SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:27CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:25SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:27SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42CHIBrad Richards: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Sharp – Teravainen3:24
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Vermette – Saad – Teravainen7:25
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Richards – Sharp – Bickell6:00
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw7:39
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson16:13
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Keith15:58
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Timonen – Seabrook8:49
xG 0.02–0.47 (3%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Nieto10:31
xG 0.64–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson10:44
xG 1.02–0.91 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Wingels – Hertl – Tierney10:03
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow5:02
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Irwin13:25
xG 1.13–0.54 (68%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Dillon – Mueller13:14
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:11
xG 0.57–0.56 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).