Sat, Mar 14, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 016 | 27 | 229 |
| TBL | 07 | 05 | 14 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:13TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 10:00WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 12:44WPGBlake WheelerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:48WPGJim Slater: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:00TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12TBLJT Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:02TBLMike Angelidis: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:02WPGDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:01TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:01WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:01WPGJacob Trouba: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:01TBLNikita Kucherov: Boarding5 min
- P3 8:01TBLNikita Kucherov: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:44WPGPaul Postma: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele12:54
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry10:52
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Slater – Stempniak – Tlusty7:48
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Halischuk – O'Dell6:35
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Pardy6:47
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba16:04
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma14:41
xG 0.06–0.24 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Namestnikov8:24
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Drouin6:18
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos8:59
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Angelidis – Brown6:37
xG 0.17–0.36 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Stralman2:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman10:31
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Barberio2:32
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).