Sat, Mar 14, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 08 | 26 | 223 |
| LAK | 111 | 06 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 6:37NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
- P3 7:43NSHViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:49NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:14LAKDwight King: Holding2 min
- P2 14:27NSHViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:27LAKDwight King: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:28LAKAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:43LAKNicholas Shore: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Forsberg13:36
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Stalberg – Jarnkrok9:25
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Santorelli – Wilson11:40
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque8:36
xG 0.02–0.04 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:13
xG 0.81–0.15 (85%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Franson – Jones11:45
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:04
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis11:46
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Shore5:45
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Clifford – Shore4:14
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli8:15
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin12:57
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty4:57
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – McNabb13:51
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).